El Niño?

Where is it?

Or rather, where is the rain it is supposed to bring us?

This rain year (Sept-Aug) has been the 22th driest in the 1 Sept-15 Dec period (out of 146 years recorded), and of those 21 only 3 had above average rainfall. But one of those 3, 1977-1978, had 42.34 inches.

So it’s not unprecedented that we’ll still have a wet year, just unlikely.

A fortnight ago the Independent ran an article claiming that in the big El Niño year of 1997-1998 rainfall in SB was delayed from its usual pattern and the big storms didn’t start until January. That was consoling. But then Weather Underground provided data from all the big El Niño years for SF and LA (but not SB) which said exactly the opposite.

So I grabbed the rainfall data provided by the county from their recording station downtown, and extracted the relevant points.

SB Rainfall Data at County Building
(in inches)
Year Sept Oct Nov 1-15 Dec 1 Sep-15 Dec
1957 0.00 1.41 0.51 2.95 4.87
1965 0.09 0.00 7.86 0.53 8.48
1972 0.00 0.04 5.69 0.73 6.46
1982 2.07 0.63 5.18 0.22 8.10
1997 0.05 0.15 4.30 5.78 10.28
2015 0.10 0.26 0.13 0.19 0.68
Average
1867-2015
0.27 0.69 1.52 1.24 3.72

So the data I can find contradicts the Independent’s claim. In all prior “Big” El Niño years there was rainfall above the long term average at this point of the year at downtown SB.

The general consensus is that we will get a lot of rain this year — eventually.

But I worry.

The current definition of a big El Niño was not one that could be detected until (relatively) recently, thus we only have records for 6 big El Niño events. That’s not a big sample size…

This is supposed to be a bigger El Niño than any recorded, maybe we don’t get rain with exceptionally big El Niños. This is a warmer year than ever before, maybe that means something too… Weather is always random, maybe this year we’re just unlucky.

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One Response to “El Niño?”

  1. Adger Says:

    Keep the hard data coming!

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